>Now the D800 and D800E have been announced, what is the >likelihood of a D4x with the same (or an even higher >resolution)sensor? > >If there is a D4x, and it follows the same 4 years & 5 >months timescale as the D3/D3x, the announcement would be >sometime around May 2013. > >What are your thoughts folks? > The D3x existed in a Nikon world where the other two FX cameras were the D3 (and later the D3s) and D700, both at 12MP. So, the D3x had an edge in both megapixels and rugged pro body/pro controls over the D700, and virtually nothing more than a resolution boost over the original D3.
A D4x would be born into a world where a 36MP D800/D800E already exists, so its chief advantage would logically need to be a bit more than just the pro body, even given the extra stuff found in the current D4. That said, there would likely be more than a few pros who would want the D4x on that basis. But for broader appeal, I'd think Nikon would have to either price the D4x attractively (definitely less than $8000) and closer to the D4, or else boost the MP count even more.
The latter doesn't seem to be impossible, given that the D3x performed best at lower ISO settings; a D4x with a top sensitivity of, say, ISO 1600 and 48MP might be alluring for some. Just because I can't visualize a need for such a camera (a 48MP D4x would not be the same as a 48MP MF camera) might simply mean that I am short-sighted.
I have a vague feeling that a D4x might be in Nikon's plans, and I'm looking forward to seeing its specs and learning just why it might be a good idea. Isn't the technology race fun?
Well, given the fact that they have the resources, money, manpower, tech people and equipment, they have to keep on building better mousetraps. Sooner or later, they'll face diminishing returns from investing in speed and megas and spread their technical prowess to issues that will become more important. I can think of a bunch of little things now that would appeal to me as I'm sure you can too. Reducing weight, power consumption, communication ability are just a few things that will be getting my attention now that I feel the new family members, D4 & 800's have maxed me out. I don't think my computer or me for that matter can see the difference between 30 & 35 mega's. It'll take something mighty damn attractive to move me once I get my hands on a D4 and a 800. my 2 cents.
No I don't think so. The D800 actually has a generous buffer (something like 17 RAW IIRC) that holds images queued up waiting to go to the memory card. i was surprised the buffer is so big to support a 4fps camera. It would be interesting to see if the highest end CF card could empty the buffer fast enough to keep up with the 4fps (giving one limitless shooting at 4fps), but I guess that's probably a few years away yet.
On the D800 the bottleneck on 4fps has to be the offloading of the sensor and/or processing of the bits to form the raw image. If it is a sensor limitation then thinking about this more - a second EXPEED 3 wouldn't help either.
So come to think about it, I bet the EXPEED 3 isn't the limitation here but the number of pipes/channels coming off the 36mp sensor itself. Which is good because I have been trying to calculate the maximum fps of a 24mp DX D400 using the D800 as a base and the math wasn't coming out good (6 fps) for the D400. So I'm now back to thinking 9 or 10 fps for the D400, which is where it needs to be from a competition with Canon/Sony perspective
My reading of the tea leaves, and the reasonableness of the previous rumors, says that there will be no D4X as the D800 is the upgrade to the D3X. While the D3S was upgraded by the D4, the D700 as a mini-sports-D3 has been orphaned.
All of that plus $4 will get you a large coffee at Starbucks....
---------+---------+---------+---------+ Joseph K Seattle, WA, USA
... >the D700 as a mini-sports-D3 has been orphaned. >
Which is certainly the Canon pattern at the moment too. What I mean by that is Canon deliberately stated they are not producing the 1DS anymore, and as far as I know, no one expects the 1D X sensor to be offered in a 5D (or 3D body).
You can never be sure. On the one hand, Nikon does not need a lot of R&D to produce a D4x - just take D4 body, D800 sensor and add some small, but sweet improvements - and you are ready to satisfy a few perfectionists - for a good premium. On the other hand, making a more expensive clone of D800 is not dangerous for D800 sales at all (unlike making a cheaper clone of expensive Canon 1Dx or Nikon D3x in the past) - so, why not?
A D4x using a full RGB sensor instead of a bayer based one would get everyone upgrading. Nikon has patents for sensors that don't use interpolation. If they produce that, then they would initiate one big round of camera upgrades for a few years. After that, though, it will get harder and harder to get people to upgrade.