While my wife and daughter were shopping for clothes at our local mall, I decided to stroll over to the "Mall" camera store. I asked the sales person if he knew anything about the D3, his response was that they already have the D3 in their warehouse. I'm guessing that if I ordered one, it would take 3 months for the delivery guy to 'walk' it from the warehouse to the Mall store .
I'll take a guess... a complete guess... some people will have them by the 15th of November and most everyone that pre-orders will have one by the end of the month. That's my guess.
Nikon will be shipping first to its NPS members and the news agencies whose business it lost to Canon. Consumers will probably have limited availability until February.
A lot depends on whether there are production problems with the new cameras. Canon's Mark III production was crippled for months and only now is the camera readily available, many months after the initial launch.
I suspect it will be much easier to get a D300 as it is to be produced in both the low volume pro oriented facility and in the general production facility that also produces the D40, D80, etc. in great numbers.
Just remembering the real shipping dates for the D200 as opposed to the early Nikon projection. I really have no idea. But in this case the real question might be how many bodies will ship in November.