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Onward Nikon, Onward! When the D3?

DigitalDarrell

Knoxville, US
5988 posts

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DigitalDarrell Team Member Founding Member of the Nikonians writer Guild. Author of most of the NikoniansPress books. Donor Ribbon awarded for his generous support to the Fundraising Campaign 2014 Donor Ribbon awarded for his very generous support to the Fundraising Campaign 2015 Charter Member
Sun 19-Mar-06 02:02 PM



So, now we have a Nikon D2x and a D200! Seems just like the "good old days" with the Nikon F5 and F100.

Nikon Acquisition Syndrome (NAS) is satisfied briefly. But, when will the Nikon D3 and D300 arrive? Let DD, the High Priest of Digital Salvation, prophesy briefly.

We have a sneaking feeling that a new digital camera is, like a computer, almost obsolete when you buy it. Gone are the days of a Pro camera lasting for 10-years in the marketplace. Look at the Nikon SLR film camera release dates, for the way it used to be.

Nikon SLR Camera Release Dates
========================
Nikon F - 1959
Nikon F2 - 1971
Nikon F3 - 1980
Nikon F4 - 1988
Nikon F5 - 1996
Nikon F6 - 2004

In the digital arena, the professional Nikon D1 digital SLR appeared in 1999. From that point a new version of Nikon digital professional cameras has appeared about every two years. Below is a chart of recent Nikon digital SLR camera history. Do YOU see a pattern:

Nikon DSLR Camera Release Dates
========================
Nikon D1 - 1999
Nikon D1h - 2001
Nikon D1x - 2001
Nikon D2h - 2003
Nikon D2x - 2005

So, although the digital cameras themselves do not wear out much faster than their film counterparts, the market dumps them post haste for the latest greatest thing. If I keep on shooting my D2x, with its 12 megapixel capability, I can make lovely giant images of the highest quality. If a 16x20 is a large image today, will it not still be so in 2015? Sure it will! So, will I be happy to keep on using my D2x until then?

Since I have a continuously raging case of NAS, it is doubtful that I'll be able to contain myself when a D3 is released. Just ask Digital Brenda, my loving wife, who, of course, owns a D200.

I think one of two things will happen in 2007:

Thing 1 ... Nothing will happen, and the D2x will become the first long-term digital camera.
Thing 2 ... The DSLR pattern above will continue, and a shiny new Nikon D3 will appear, right on schedule.

What do YOU think will happen? Given the pattern of new releases, it is most likely that Nikon is already working on a D3, and maybe even has a working prototype being tested as we speak. Canon, Fuji, Pentax, Samsung, and even Leica will not sit still for long. They'll be pumping out large quantities of new DSLRs over the next couple of years. Nikon can't afford NOT to at least try to match the output. Today's market demands it!

Watch for the odd rumors, strange sightings, and occasional Photoshop created D3 on the net. As the frenzy builds, we'll all start preparing for the next round. What'll happen to our old faithful D2 and D200 cameras when the D3 appears? Ever heard of eBay? I can buy a nice Nikon F5 for USD $500 these days. Used D2x and D200 bodies will soon be flooding eBay's virtual shelves. Would you like to buy a nice used Nikon D2x for, oh, USD $1500? I think you won't have long to wait!

Keep on capturing time...

==============================================
Darrell Young (DigitalDarrell) www.pictureandpen.com
"Better too many words than not enough understanding."
==============================================

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