Not for a while, certainly. The first sign will be with Nikon's quarterly numbers. If they are running low on prediction they will lower prices via rebates to hit their numbers. Since they just started their fiscal year it will be a while.
Part of Nikon's pricing of this lens is to hedge against later reductions. Another factor is the Yen-Other Currency valuations. If the Yen loses significant value then rebates are more likely.
The laws of supply and demand will determine if and when the 80-400mm will get discounted. They seem to be selling quite well at full price. Once the supply increases due to a drop in demand, the price should drop. With other lenses, it usually taken more than a year before a price drop. Time will tell.
Local retailers are quoting about 10% more than the price of a new D800 for the new 80-400 lens. One can get a new Sigma 120-300 f2.8 or a good second hand 200-400 f4 VR for about 10% to 15% more. This makes the choice somewhat more difficult.
>What does the price of a lens have to do with the price of a >camera body? > I was only trying to make the point that it costs less than a D800 in most markets and therefore, since it costs more here, somewhat overpriced in my neck of the woods, even by Nikon's standards.......