Great analysis Neal. Comparing a 70-200/2.8 on DX to 300/4 or 300/2.8 on FX and you see why DX is so difficult to beat at the telephoto end, when it comes to practical lens size and cost.
I'd still like to see your analysis include the Nikon V1 + 85 f/1.8 but since I don't have any practical experience with the V1 I personally wouldn't push that one too hard. I will say it's worth considering though. It's definitely the fastest 200mm-equiv in the Nikon lineup.
For the OP, I'd personally recommend a Nikkor 70-200 f/2.8 VRI with your D90 over any other option. This should cost a bit less than the 3rd party 70-200 + D7000 and it gives you VR to go with that f/2.8, which should help you hand-hold in low light without having to resort to a monopod or something. Plus it's far and away the best-in-class lens on DX.