He believes the problem affects 'quite a few cameras', but the book is out on how many.
I think a refurb. does not necessarily assure you no issue - unless they replaced the shutter (presuming the original one had problems, which it may not have or it wasn't noted).
To maximize your chances of avoiding this issue, or rectifying it easily if you buy one I would:
1. Buy local from a place with an exchange policy for early discovered manufacturer defects (my local shop has a 10 day policy); and 2. Try and buy new stock as I suspect that after Nikon semi-admitted this was an issue they took steps to rectify whatever was causing it at the front end.