I always use lossless compressed RAW. My experience is that after formatting my memory card the shots remaining agrees with the tables in the manuals. In practice I get over 50% than shots than the shots remaining indicates. This has happened consistently with my D300, D800e, and D4. That appears to be similar to other Nikonians.
As other replies indicate, Nikon seems to be giving very conservative capacities based on a worse case of negligible compression instead of using the expected file sizes used in the table.
Gary in SE Michigan, USA. Nikonians membership - My most important photographic investment, after the camera. D4, D810, D300 (720nm IR conversion), D90, F6, FM3a (black), FM2n (chrome) YashicaMat 124, Graflex Speed Graphic 4x5 My Nikonians Gallery & Our Chapter Gallery