>A Nikon Refurbished D600 is $1600. The D800 is $2500 >refurbished. I think you'll see the D600 drop in price over >the next year with a price around the $1600 mark. > >A lower priced D600 = more sales... More D600 sales = more FX >glass sold... more FX glass sold = more people moving up to >D800's... etc. > >So assuming thats true.. where does the D400 fall in your >pricing model? > >IMHO.. if (big IF) the D400 gets made it will be 'spendy' >($2.4kish). The Canon rumors are saying the 7Dmk2 will be >priced high. Nikon will probably follow. The 'Nikon pricing >gives a spot for the D400' doesn't float with Nikon's new >'Discount! discount! discount!' strategy.
To be honest I don't believe there will be a D400 or "Pro"-style DX body. However, as we are all just guessing (including on pricing) I am just going on what Nikon has done in the past, as the only true predictor of future behavior is past behavior.
I don't understand the refurbished or discount points. Any discounts whether it be at the point of sale (new) or through refurbishment would find its way to a D400 anyway. So a new D400 could be say $1700, a refurbished one could be $1200-1300, and a discounted one new could be $1400-1500.
I do agree with you on this, if indeed I am correct about your FX point, I do think Nikon wants to move more serious users to FX. That has been the case for some time now in my opinion - thus there have been numerous new or refreshed FX lenses versus just a smattering of new DX stuff. Any doubt about this was erased by the D600.
From previous conversations on this issue, the people who really new the "Pro"-Style" DX camera, birders and wildlife shooters, don't appear to be a big priority for Nikon, perhaps even if the 7DmkII comes out they are prepared to concede that relatively marginal market to Canon while they continue their (successful) recent assault on the very lucrative low end DX market, serious enthusiast DX market and the FX market.