<<There are lots of reasons it is going to be over $2k.>>
I've always felt the price would be between where a D800 is now and it's launch price, so in UK speak between about £1900-2500 (US$2800-3750). Personally I'd guess the lower end.
<<Is a 80-400 AF-S really costing 2x to manufacture than the D version?>>
Overpriced in my view and considering it's a narrow aperture lens which is given "pro" range status, perhaps the gold band costs the extra! If that lens got down to say 60-70% of it's current cost I may be interested. Until then I have the excellent 300mm f4 and the understated Sigma 50-500mm OS