Fri 11-May-12 03:33 AM | edited Fri 11-May-12 03:38 AM by ZoneV
That is the million dollar question (literally, as Nikon's revenue is being projected as hitting insane new levels next fiscal year).
A lot of people have speculated that the D800 being 36MP means there won't be a D4x. Defnitely a posibility, I'd say.
But consider this:
D1x - 5.5MP D2x - 12MP D3x - 24 MP
Nikon has doubled the MP of their "x" model each time. That would put a hypothetical D4x at 48MP.
Will Nikon do it? I don't know. There are rumors that the current D3x is soon to be discontinued.
If they get rid of the D3x and don't do a D4x, they have effectively reduced their product line by one camera (from 7 bodies to 6). Now, many people are predicting that Nikon is also going to eliminate the non-gripped pro DX body (D300s) from the lineup without replacement. If they do that, they will be down to just 5 bodies (3 pro bodies counting the older D700, and 2 not counting it). That doesn't sound right.
There are rumors now of a D600 low-level FX body (perhaps even 24MP FX like the D3x) being announced at or before Photokina this year. If this happens, Nikon would have 6 bodies, still one short.
So here is what I'm proposing: If you see a D300s replacement announced (in addition to a D600) I'd say the chance of seeing a D4x drops a bit.
Would Nikon have 8 bodies in their lineup? Possible. After all, the D4 is a bit lower in MP than many thought it would be (people were expecting 20MP). So maybe a 48MP counterpart arriving next year isn't so far-fetched. If such a D4x comes, I'd guess it would be $8000 once again. Just a thought. Or, maybe the super high-res "x" really is going away. We'll just have to wait and see.
Personally, I'm eyeing the D3x as its price steadily drops on the used market.