As the economic news continues to surprise some investors on the downside, and the market responds accordingly, I'm fascinated with the November 10 postings by Thom Hogan on his web site front page here:

http://www.bythom.com/

With Nikon's aggressive expectations for DSLR sales, it will be interesting whether demand comes anywhere close to fulfulling it. I'd be interested in your comments about other impacts of the economy and how it's affecting your photography, particularly if you're dependent on any revenue from it. Thanks for responding and hope the holidays are good for everyone out there.

Poll result (137 votes) Have decided to wait until early 2009 for D3, D700, D300 or D90 purchase. (8 votes) Vote Have decided to wait at least 6 months to purchase a D3, D700, D300 or D90. (6 votes) Vote Have decided to wait for an indeterminate period of time to purchase a D3, D700, D300 or D90. (21 votes) Vote Have decided to wait on any photographic equipment purchases for the foreseeable future. (11 votes) Vote Am evaluating the pricing on a D3, D700, D300, or D90 periodically to catch the best price point, and think it will be in 2009. (27 votes) Vote Am going to purchase a D3, D700, D300 or D90 in 2008 in spite of the economy. (64 votes) Vote

I'm afraid it's gonna be at least six months before there's a body upgrade. $5k+ is just too much money to be spending right now with the economy in the shape it's in. At this point I can in fact just spend the money, but that doesn't seem prudent given that a lot of the economy could come crashing down around my ears.

I surely don't need to shut off the spending completely, but a D3 and at least one lens is a couple of mortgage payments or food for a long time.

It doesn't help Nikon that I've already got a lot of gear, sufficient to do many, many things...

_____
Brian... a bicoastal Nikonian and Team Member

My gallery is online. Comments and critique welcomed any time!

I decided to go for the live.com rebate on a D300

>I'd be interested in your comments about other impacts of the economy and how it's affecting your photography,
In the UK lens sales by unit numbers went up around 25% in the first 6 months of 2008, and in the third quarter despite 40% hikes in petrol and home heating prices went up by 35% - so what might be going on in the "real world" as distinct from the "herd instinct".
First stock markets etc are all about "herd reaction" and rarely about economic performance - whilst the economy is down and loan lenders in USA and UK have been a primary cause of that, turnover is down generally less than 5% which, whilst not good, is not as bad as share prices suggest.
Next in the UK (and USA) petrol costs are 20% down on their peak so those on a secure income have less need to tighten their belts.
Probably the interesting "bonus" in the UK is about 15% move home a year, most taking on higher mortgage payments plus $15,000 - $50,000 relocation expenses equivalent (we get taxed heavy when we buy a home) - which combined dramatically reduces disposable income for Nikon or anything else.
Suddenly because the loan companies balance sheets have been decimated (mainly their own fault) new house loans are down 66%.
The net effect is about 10% of our population a year are no longer taking a voluntary reduction in disposable income - which explains in part lens sales going up from 25% to 35% in the first quarter of a recession.
On the negative side a recession unfortunately increases the numbers of poor (redundancy or short time working) relative to those better off because of discounting of retail products.
Some markets like India and China continue to develop fast - despite the downturn.
What I think we will see over the coming months is manufacturers concentrating on low and medium price products where sales are going to go up world wide despite the recession, and less on high end products where volume reductions could be more than 10%.
Taking the D700 as an interesting "mid point" it's current UK street price is only about 15% more than the D100 launch price - or nil if inflation is included in the calculation. In this sense it is perhaps 300% better value for money than was possible 5 years ago so many will still buy.
Taking Canon they are probably going down market with the aggressive launching of the 5D II - which among other things is likely to decimate 1D/1Ds III sales.
Looking a few years ahead UK and USA taxes will have to go up significantly to pay the costs of government bail outs and to reduce government loans, reducing disposable income relative to the Far East.
Perhaps as soon as 5 years from now will see the end of USA/Europe taking 66% of market share.

Photography is a bit like archery. A technically better camera, lens or arrow may not hit the target as often as it could if the photographer or archer does not practice enough.

Len Shepherd

> petrol costs are 20% down on their peak

Actually in the US, petrol (uhm, gas) is down by more than 50%. It peaked at about $4.20/gal in the summer and is now reliably seen for about $1.95 in the same places. (It peaked over $5.40/gal - that's the US gallon - in areas where gasoline is traditionally more expensive in the US. Even there the prices are down to about $2.35.)

_____
Brian... a bicoastal Nikonian and Team Member

My gallery is online. Comments and critique welcomed any time!

Hi,

I've set a target price to buy a D700 (at least 25% below launch price) & having watched the prices drop nicely, I'm now wondering whether we're going to get there.

I'm sure demand must have dropped dramatically for higher priced discretionary purchases, as anyone with major debts, savings or pensions investments is worse off, leaving aside worries about redundancies. The pound is on its knees, having dropped about 25% against the yen in the last 3 months. If the prices Nikon can achieve in the UK are more than the marginal (directly variable) cost of producing the cameras, it is worth continuing to go for a reasonable slice of a smaller market. Bundling free copies of NX2 (as is currently happening) adds very little to marginal costs & may help to sustain sales. The interesting question for me is what will happen when the NX2 offer expires.

Bridget

>Hi,
>
>I've set a target price to buy a D700 (at least 25% below
>launch price) & having watched the prices drop nicely, I'm
>now wondering whether we're going to get there.
>
>I'm sure demand must have dropped dramatically for higher
>priced discretionary purchases, as anyone with major debts,
>savings or pensions investments is worse off, leaving aside
>worries about redundancies. The pound is on its knees, having
>dropped about 25% against the yen in the last 3 months. If the
>prices Nikon can achieve in the UK are more than the marginal
>(directly variable) cost of producing the cameras, it is worth
>continuing to go for a reasonable slice of a smaller market.
>Bundling free copies of NX2 (as is currently happening) adds
>very little to marginal costs & may help to sustain sales.
> The interesting question for me is what will happen when the
>NX2 offer expires.

What? When did this happen? I only got a trial version with my D300 two days ago.

Anyway, I think they should drop the whole software thing. Look at Canon, e.g.

Back to the topic, yes, I wonder what will happen to the prices and new products if Thom's prediction on the camera stores holds true.
>Bridget

Hi,

I don't know if the NX2 offer extends to the USA, or to other camera bodies. I have it anyway, so it's not of much use. From Nikon's point of view (depending on the deal it has with the software company), an additional copy probably costs next to nothing, and makes the product more attractive, albeit with a risk of losing potential future revenue that could have arisen from someone (like you) purchasing it.

Bridget

Well, I wouldn't buy it. And I also want a camera control program, but won't buy it from Nikon either.

If I have to buy programs, I refuse to pay for them from Nikon but will support other companies instead.

Right now I am using LR2 and CS3. Have also considered Bibble pro. But not Capture NX, just out of spite. The same goes for the Nikon camera control program (lost the name, sorry).

>reliably seen for about $1.95

In Little Rock this morning, regular gas was $1.71/gallon at most stations I saw along my normal morning drive. We've been under $2.00 for a month now and the price is going down literally every day.

""

Interesting. The Nikon ADR's are down nearly 70% over the past 10 months. That was a smart investment.

Eric Bowles
Nikonians Team
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I couldn't vote because I have already bought. Part of my thinking for purchasing D700 in October was that if the economy is going to come crashing down, I'm going to buy now while I am still employed and have some savings at hand for the purchase.

Also in the case of the Canadian dollar it is plummeting badly, so we now expect across the board price increases for camera gear. This was my second reason - prices could actually rise here, so now is a good time to buy. For comparison the 5d mkii went UP $300 about 3 weeks ago here from its initially projected price. I just checked the Nikon 14-24, it went UP $94 sometime in the past week.

Best regards, SteveK
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'A camera is an instrument that teaches people how to see without a camera.' -- Dorothea Lange

Very interesting to hear the different international perspectives. Obviously there's a different dynamic to each economy, with prices rising in Canada and Europe due to the resurgence of the yen vs their currencies, while others are stable or falling. As Thom Hogan notes, during global economic turmoil, the two remaining stable currencies are the yen and the US dollar.

However, what may be more influencial than currency values in the long run is the demand/supply dynamic and the manufacturer's desire to maintain or even gain market share during these times. With the dramatic overall company size difference between Canon and Nikon, it will be interesting to see how they each position their products in the coming months from both a price and a volume perspective.

Thanks for the current responses and please continue to provide your additional perspectives on these issues.

OldPhotos
"If everyone possesses some measure of this intangible quality called creativity, photography is unprecedented as an outlet for its expression." - Ansel Adams

In general, this does seem like a smart time to hold back and see what happens, at least for buyers in the US. The dollar is holding up better than other currencies against the yen, and it seems obvious that there will be some pressure on prices as the consumer market continues to dry up.

I've been looking ahead to a D700 by the end of 2009, which (other than its still-too-large size for this FE2 user) is the first DSLR that really promises the long-term image quality and usability that I've been hoping for from Nikon.

I just bought a D90, though. The primary reason was the Microsoft cashback offer on ebay, which both made it easy to sell my D80 and cut the price of the new body nearly to $700. I doubt I would do much better later, since even if the price of the D90 comes down, the resale on the D80 would continue to dwindle, and the cashback could well go away. The D90 may not be a dramatic improvement over the D80, but it will likely keep me happy longer, putting off the leap to FX until the D700 is pushed lower and/or there are some new models (a D90-sized FX would be perfect for me, personally).

A big sensor Nikon rangefinder or compact EVIL could put off my next DSLR purchase even longer, if it gives me a compact low-light interiors machine.

Chris Spurrell

Loyal D2x er - I bought a D300 as a 'wait 'n see body' lighter, better noise handling, great wedding camera, takes the DX lenses, biding my time, looking askance at the great bodies Canon is coming out with, and thinking hard about a digital back for my beloved 503CW....

I didn’t vote because I got my D300 this time last year and don’t plan to get another body until at least 2010.

I do have plans to add a few things to my kit over the next six moths or so. The timing is no affected by the economy but just by my normal budgeting.

Dave
Quad Cities, USA
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My vote is"none of the above". I'm waiting for the D3 replacement. I don't need a replacement for my D2x; I'm sure Nikon will create something worth the asking price. Economy has no impact on my decision.

Daniel

Daniel McGowan
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I'll revisit this on December 2nd....

My current delay on a D700 is waiting for some more generous financing, (like the Circuit City 24 month/no interest offer). I just don't like to finance camera gear.

Amazon had a 24 month deal that ended in September. I'm hoping they or someone anyway, will offer it again after Thanksgiving to go along with the current $300 Nikon rebate. That would push me to buy now.

The problem with polls like this one is that there are usually too many criteria that people have that don't get considered, though nice try.

""

My guess is that financing will continue to shrivel up. Companies are decreasing the credit limits, and making the no interest loans in shorter and shorter duration.

You may be right. We'll just have to see.

""

I decided to purchase a D700 and Nikkor 24-70. I gave it the old "what the heck" and dished it out. I am not sorry one whit.
_________________________________________________________________
Just your average enthusiastic Nikonian from Montreal, Quebec, Canada!

FWIW, the current count is 42 intending to delay a possible 2008 purchase at least into early 2009, while 37 intend to go ahead with plans to purchase in 2008. Even if some portion of those delaying a purchase were just wishful thinking, this is a huge percentage shift in consumer sentiment. If this poll result is any indication of the consumer's mindset overall, from a business planning perspective, this has to really worry retailers in general and photographic equipment dealers in particular. Looking forward to more input from both current and new responders as we continue to approach the holidays. Thanks much!

OldPhotos
"If everyone possesses some measure of this intangible quality called creativity, photography is unprecedented as an outlet for its expression." - Ansel Adams

My indeterminate period of time has arrived. I'm so weak. Nikon finally suckered me with their end date for the $300 rebate for the D700 and I ordered one from BHPhoto. I hope that all the posts that say it doesn't produce very sharp images are wrong or at least pickier than I am. At least the economy has 6 months to recover before I have to pay for it.

I see BHPhoto has increased their price for the D700 by $150 since I bought it last night, so I feel better about my decision. Can't wait till it arrives.

Voted indefinite. My D2Hs is still taking great pics. and going higher res. and / or full frame will undoubtedly cost much more than the camera. Bigger printer, computer upgrade, much more storage. I'll hold out for another year or two, and just buy a piece of glass next spring if the economy doesn't tank further.
great thread. cheers
Christopher
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I have two D300s now. Was waiting to see what the D3x was going to go for. It appears that it will be more then I want to spend no matter what the economy is doing. So I have decided to wait and see what the replacement for the D700 is going to be. Actually I would be just as excited for some new lenses.
Have a good turkey day,
John

I'm with EpicDan on this one, the economy will have no effect on my decision either... However, an announcement in early December (if it happens) will

www.frozenpixelstudios.com

i've been on something of a buying spree lately - 24-70 f/2.8, d700, 24mm pc-3, etc. not sure what other purchases the near future holds but those decisions probably won't be affected by the economy unless things become significantly worse. my fixed non-NAS related expenses are pretty low.

Hi,

I wasn't planning on purchasing any camera bodies from now until the end of 2009 as I bought a D700 on July 25, 2008. I am planning on buying lenses in 2009, probably the 17-35mm in January and the 16mm fisheye in March.

So far the economy hasn't changed my short term plans.

Enjoy!

Randy

With the AAFES 20 percent off sale at $2299 I could no longer resist. Also I do not see the price of the FX cameras dropping as rapidly or as far as their DX counterparts. The D3 and D700 are so close to "the grail" that they will be in demand for some time to come I feel and even if an improved version becomes available how many of you would actually give them up for cheap? No you will keep them as backups and continue to use them. Usable ISO up to 6400 will be hard to beat for some time to come; and I give less than a hoot about 24MP. Even usable ISO to 25,600 would not be a must have unless you're into shooting black holes I suppose. Being able to shot indoor concerts, parties, sporting events, or church services without annoying flash and handheld is a dream come true and can be done now with excellent results so the D700 will do it for me for quite some time I imagine.

mrcontinental
Yes, besides the excellent price, your reasons for being pleased with your purchase are ones that are among the favorites espoused by many D700 owners. And at a 23 1/3% discount from retail, it's a very good buy. I'll be interested in seeing if the price drops further from other more accessable sources and at which point buyers "cave" to the purchase! Thanks for the feedback!

OldPhotos
"If everyone possesses some measure of this intangible quality called creativity, photography is unprecedented as an outlet for its expression." - Ansel Adams

Ok, so it's December 2nd. Much as I would love to be able to stretch to £5500 for the D3x (or even £2500 for the D3) It's now a straight choice between the lighter, less expensive, video capable D90 and the high ISO performance of the D700 to compliment the D300 I have.

It might take a few more weeks to decide!