As Brian says, anyone purporting to "know" Nikon's plans is dealing in questionable information -- or sheer speculation. But if you're interested in that sort of thing, there is a site that specializes in it. Caveat lector.
Traditionally Nikon has an announcement in the August timeframe. People are expecting a DX camera announcement then. But it's anyone's guess as to what (if anything) gets announced. Some people think it will be the D300 successor but it could just as easily be a new Nikon 1 or something.
Personally, I think some of the speculation Thom Hogan has is interesting. He basically lays it out like this: DSLR market has contracted by 15%, the big makers (Nikon, Canon, etc) have large inventories of current and last generation product that is unsold. Announcing another camera makes it so that they have 3 generations of products unsold. What's in their best interest? Keeping a release schedule and build up unsold inventory or delaying things and trying to clear out inventory?
I think that the makers would be better off selling off as much inventory as possible and delay announcements for a while.
We now have cameras that produce large images with incredible detail. We have cameras with excellent dynamic range. We have cameras with formerly unthinkable ISO range and low noise capabilities. We have SLR's that shoot movies. And we are getting all of this at some great values.
I think that the more the camera makers give us, expectations will always be greater so that some are never satisfied.
Mon 08-Jul-13 12:23 AM | edited Mon 08-Jul-13 12:24 AM by Omaha
Oh, I was just having a bit of fun.
Honestly, I think the folks at Canikon have jumped onto a treadmill that is going to go faster and faster until they just fall off.
As picture-taking devices, where do they have left to go? Cameras can always get faster, but how much faster than a D7100 or D4 are they going to get? Big time diminishing returns.
Or they can capture more MP...but the D800 is already crazy high. Are they going to match the high-end MF backs (80MP these days)? More diminishing returns.
Or they can add features...video, GPS and WiFi will soon be standard. What's left? 1000 AF points? ISO 600,000? Web browsers? Crazy PP special effects? Maybe something to do with 3D? Its more diminishing returns.
About the only real-world shooting situation I see that hasn't already been met is see in the dark, action sports shooting accessible to amateurs. Soccer moms and dads would love to be able to point their $995 DSLR cum kit lens at Junior playing basketball in the poorly lit gym and effortlessly get Sports Illustrated quality results. That will require better ISO, better AF, and crazy good crop capabilities (ie more MP).
But its still diminishing returns...chasing a smaller and smaller segment of the market with features that are less and less "mainstream".
While all that is going on, Canikon is getting squeezed from the bottom. For 99% of people taking pictures in 2013, pictures are "for" the web, and you can get a terrific camera in any new cell phone.
I'm glad I'm not a DSLR product development guy these days.
I don't think he meant to imply that either camera is limiting, just that diffraction is already a real consideration at today's MP/pixel sizes. Making smaller pixels (by definition, a necessity if MP increases for a given image format) will only make it more so.
The only cameras that really stick to a timetable are the single-digit D series. You get a new main camera every four years, to be in time for the Olympic Games. Intermediately you may get an S version or an X version.
However, the pairing of the D4 and the D800 rather suggests that there won't be a D4X to match the D3X, because the D800 is already filling that space.
My guesses would be: A small format D4 equivalent like the D700, in the next two years A D800X in the next two years, offering 64 MP images.
Nikon is very good at keeping secrets. Therefore any specific information on new bodies is pure speculation. We know that new bodies will be introduced and can make an educated guess of the model numbers and approx anouncement dates based on history. Guessing at the specs of any yet to be introduced new model is less clear.
i tend to agree with an earlier post. with 18 different models, the market is saturated. with cell phones, point and shoots mirrorless options and cams like the lytro, the days of the DSLR may be numbered.
realistically, is there anything a D5000 can do that a nikon 1 can't do if the 1 had the same lens options?
going forward, Nikon should have three dx line and 3 fx line, an entry level A la 3000, and intermediate (the 5200) and the advanced dx (7100) likewise, a 600, 800 4 series for entry fx intermediate fx and professional grade