I tend to think along the same lines. When a skilled shooter decides on the key frame and nails it, 1 shot is all that can be at the right moment. I do not shoot sports but lots of dance, ballet, events and such and find that the 6fps of my D7000 does not help at all if I do not time and anticipate what I am intending to capture. Random shooting, without timed anticipation really does rely on luck which can get a great shot occasionally but for consistency and a regular assignment call, that is not high enough odds. Maybe the 4-6fps of the D800 will provide MORE keepers due to better AF, speed and tracking between frames. I would rather have better tracking between shots than number of shots any time.
If one really wants to grab the unexpected shots maybe they should be looking into hi-res video from multiple vantage points, like is done in TV sports coverage. One camera is trained on, say, the outside wall after the widest turn of a NASCAR event just for that most likely spot for a wall contact.
Knowing the sport intimately lowers the luck factor a lot. In my ballet shooting, being at a dress rehearsal sort of eliminates the excuses for missing the best shots. Same with theater, gymnastics, swimming, and many other predictive activities. When I am back home in the US, I use my sister's season tickets for the Kings NBA games and find that that, once the game and players are learned a little, really is a moderate to slow game that does not require bursts of speed, a parabolic arc of a ball is about as predictable as anything in daily life. Someone who specializes in the craft would certainly be expected to develop skills that would set them apart from amateurs with only a fast frame rate camera.
Regarding the assumed poor low light performance of the D800, to believe that, one must ignore the consistent reports by those who have been shooting with it for assignments. The consensus is that high ISO performance is the same as the D3, not the D3s. That means if low light is involved and normal sized prints are needed, downsizing/resampling of D800 images will yield a 1-1.5 stop advantage in a practical application.
I appears that some are just grasping as straws to find "deal breaker" flaws in the camera, when I have not seen any serious flaws yet, only better image related performance: faster more accurate/lower light capable Af, metering, face tracking, WB, DR, lower low ISO noise and wider DR, great options for getting two ranges of field of view from every lens without giving up res(compared to what they have now), HDR built in, and game changing Video.
Plus about 100 other useful upgrades all for a reasonable price that will have some other brand's model managers waking in a cold sweat every night. Plus a D800e...wow, Nikon just changed the playing field.
Stan
St Petersburg Russia

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