I went back and looked at my pics of Fat Tuesday from 2007 with the D80 and the 18-200 VR - most of my shots were between 18mm and 80mm with a few beyond 80mm.
I'm going with the D7000 and the 18-200 with the SB-400 flash on top, and stash the 10.5 for crazy fisheye stuff in my jacket pocket.
I'll shoot NEF and JPG and it will be fine for what I want to do. I have the battery grip and 2 batteries for the D7000 and 64 gigs of card space - Rock & Roll. The SB-400 will work well inside and after dark!